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Iraqi Army Seeks Control of Qambar Oil Field in Disputed Area

The Iraqi army is reportedly preparing to take control of the Qambar oil field, located within the disputed area near the border between Diyala and Sulaymaniyah provinces, currently under Peshmerga control. According to the pro-Asaib Ahl al-Haq TV channel "Al-Ahd", citing security sources, tension and unrest have escalated around the Qambar oil field, which lies between Diyala and Sulaymaniyah in the area known as Dwanza Imam village. An Iraqi army unit has reportedly moved toward the area, with preparations underway to establish federal authority over this strategic location. Peshmerga leaders view this move as provocative and warn that it could trigger a crisis. Sources noted that the area is currently under the control of forces affiliated with the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK). Amid warnings of potential armed clashes in one of the most disputed areas between the federal and regional governments, local villagers have expressed concern over recent unusual military activity, including the presence of unidentified troops. Political sources familiar with the situation predict the crisis could escalate in the coming days if Baghdad and Erbil fail to take coordinated steps to de-escalate tensions and prevent any armed conflict—raising fears of a broader threat to the stability of the disputed boundary between Diyala and Sulaymaniyah.

Iraq and Kurdistan Region Near Final Deal on Salaries, Oil Exports, and Internal Revenues

The Kurdistan Region and Baghdad have reached a preliminary agreement on salaries, the budget, and oil. Today, the Iraqi Council of Ministers for Economic Affairs will prepare the final report on the agreement. Baghdad is requesting the delivery of 280,000 barrels per day to SOMO and a monthly transfer of 150 billion dinars in internal revenues. The Kurdistan Region, in turn, wants Baghdad to cover salaries, operating expenses, and investment spending for the Region, with $16 allocated per barrel for costs and 125,000 barrels designated for local use. The Iraqi Economic Affairs Council, chaired by Dr. Fuad Hussein and including the Ministers of Finance, Planning, and Oil, will finalize the agreement. A final decision will be made at the Council of Ministers' meeting. According to the information: Baghdad demands around 150 billion dinars per month in internal revenue and the delivery of 280,000 barrels of oil daily via SOMO. In return, Baghdad would cover the Region's public sector salaries, operational costs, and oil company expenditures. The Kurdistan Region’s demands include: Baghdad to send salaries of the Region’s public servants. Coverage of operational and investment costs. Salaries to be paid from actual expenses. Oil company debts to be paid. The Region to provide 280,000 barrels to SOMO and 115,000 barrels for local use. $16 to be spent per barrel. Oil companies also have several demands: No changes made to their contracts. Their debts amounting to about $1 billion should be paid. Revenues from their projects in the oil fields to be settled. According to follow-ups: The Iraqi government requests 50% of total internal revenues, estimated at 300 billion dinars, which means 150 billion dinars monthly to be delivered to the Ministry of Finance. The Kurdistan Region is to deliver 280,000 barrels of oil daily via SOMO, with the revenue returned to Iraq’s Ministry of Finance. In return, Baghdad will initially pay the May salaries this week as a goodwill gesture and, following a complete agreement, will cover the June salaries as well. For each barrel, Baghdad will pay $16 to the producing companies. With the daily delivery of 280,000 barrels to SOMO and the international market price of around $65 per barrel, the daily revenue would be $18.2 million, and the monthly (8.4 million barrels) revenue would reach $546 million. Of this, $16 per barrel (totaling $134 million monthly) will go to the companies, meaning the Iraqi government retains $412 million. If the Region sells the 280,000 barrels daily at its local price of $33 per barrel, it would generate $277 million monthly—$269 million less than the $546 million possible through SOMO.

KRG to Supply 280,000 Barrels of Oil Daily via SOMO

A technical delegation from Baghdad returned after meetings in the Kurdistan Region, while the KRG delegation also arrived in Baghdad. Baghdad demands a monthly transfer of 150 billion Iraqi dinars from the KRG’s internal revenues and the daily delivery of 280,000 barrels of oil through SOMO. In return, Baghdad will cover public salaries and oil company expenses. Over two days, a technical delegation from the Iraqi government visited the Kurdistan Region and met with the KRG Ministry of Finance, the Ministry of Natural Resources, the Council of Ministers’ Presidency, and oil companies. The Iraqi delegation has now returned to Baghdad. Today, a delegation from the KRG’s Ministry of Natural Resources and the Council of Ministers arrived in Baghdad and held meetings with Iraq’s Ministry of Oil and SOMO, indicating progress toward an agreement. According to follow-up information: The Iraqi government is requesting 50% of the KRG’s internal revenues. These revenues are estimated at 300 billion IQD monthly, meaning the KRG must transfer 150 billion IQD monthly to Iraq’s Ministry of Finance. The KRG must export 280,000 barrels of oil daily through SOMO, and the revenue will go to Iraq’s Ministry of Finance. In return, Baghdad is expected to pay the salaries for May within this week and will pay June’s salaries after a final agreement is reached. For each barrel, $16 is allocated to oil production companies. With a global market price of approximately $65 per barrel, 280,000 barrels generate about $18.2 million per day, or 8.4 million barrels monthly would yield $546 million in monthly revenue. Out of this, $134 million is spent on production companies ($16 per barrel), meaning the Iraqi government retains about $412 million monthly. If the KRG were to sell the oil independently at its current price of $33 per barrel, the monthly revenue would be $277 million—$269 million less than selling through SOMO at global prices.

General Revenues and Expenditures of Iraq in Q1 2025

🔻 The Iraqi Ministry of Finance released three monthly reports detailing revenues and expenditures during the first quarter of 2025. According to these reports: As of March 2025, Iraq’s total public revenue from both oil and non-oil sources reached approximately IQD 27.249 trillion. Of this: IQD 24.912 trillion (91%) came from oil revenues. IQD 2.337 trillion (9%) came from non-oil revenues. Total expenditures, including both operational and investment spending, exceeded IQD 28.139 trillion, broken down as: 95% for operational (recurrent) expenses. 5% for investment (capital) expenditures. The Ministry of Finance transferred more than IQD 3.086 trillion to the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG), allocated as: About IQD 2.355 trillion for salaries of public servants. Around IQD 2.856 billion for emergency assistance and other expenditures. Over IQD 728.6 billion for social protection programs. After comparing total expenditures with total revenues, expenditures exceeded revenues by 3%, resulting in a deficit of more than IQD 890.7 billion. Around IQD 2.210 trillion was spent on Iraq’s three top presidencies: The Council of Representatives (Parliament): over IQD 144 billion. The Presidency of the Republic: more than IQD 11.4 billion. The Council of Ministers (Cabinet): over IQD 2.054 trillion. 1. KRG Funding Breakdown (Q1 2025) According to the Ministry of Finance’s reports for January–March 2025, the Iraqi government provided the KRG with a total of IQD 3.086 trillion, divided as follows: IQD 2.355 trillion (76.3%) – Salaries for public employees. IQD 2.856 billion (0.1%) – Emergency, grants, and other assistance. IQD 728.6 billion (23.6%) – Social welfare programs. 2. Iraq’s Total Revenues (Q1 2025) Total revenue reached IQD 27.249 trillion, composed of: IQD 24.912 trillion (91%) – Oil revenue. IQD 2.337 trillion (9%) – Non-oil revenue. 3. Iraq’s Total Expenditures (Q1 2025) Total spending amounted to IQD 28.139 trillion, broken down as: Operational (recurrent): IQD 26.662 trillion (95%) Investment (capital): IQD 1.477 trillion (5%) 4. Investment Spending by Sector (Q1 2025) From the IQD 1.477 trillion spent on capital projects: Agriculture: IQD 40.1 billion (3%) Industry: IQD 291.3 billion (20%) Transport & Communication: IQD 255.9 billion (17%) Public Services & Roads: IQD 740.6 billion (50%) Education: IQD 149.1 billion (10%) 5. Revenue vs. Expenditure Comparison Total Revenue: IQD 27.249 trillion Total Expenditure: IQD 28.139 trillion Deficit: IQD 890.7 billion (≈3%) 6. Expenditures of Iraq’s Three Presidencies (Q1 2025) Combined expenditures reached IQD 2.210 trillion, detailed as: Council of Representatives: IQD 144.4 billion Only IQD 164,000 was for investment. Presidency of the Republic: IQD 11.4 billion Only IQD 14,000 was for investment. Council of Ministers: IQD 2.054 trillion Operational: IQD 1.865 trillion (91%) Investment: IQD 189.1 billion (9%) Sources: Monthly budget execution reports published by the Iraqi Ministry of Finance: State Account – January 2025 State Account – February 2025 State Account – March 2025 📎 https://www.mof.gov.iq/pages/MOFPublicReports.aspx

Dispute between court and council heads leads to withdrawal of top federal judges.

🔻Shiite factions attempt to control domestic politics Source: Asharq Al-Awsat Newspaper — The withdrawal of members from Iraq’s highest constitutional court threatens the timely conduct of parliamentary elections scheduled for the end of this year, due to the lack of a legal framework to endorse the results. The withdrawal of six judges from the Federal Supreme Court triggered strong reactions. Local media reported that the move followed a request by the court’s president, Jassim Muhammad, urging Iraqi authorities to convene a meeting to address disputes between the Court of Cassation and the Federal Court. However, politicians cited by the newspaper pointed to a deeper cause: a rift between the president of the Federal Supreme Court, Judge Jassim Omeri, and the head of the Judicial Council, Judge Faiq Zaidan. The Coordination Framework alliance — a coalition of ruling Shiite groups — is actively trying to manage the internal political situation and prevent instability, particularly amid ongoing regional tensions between Iran and Israel. Sources familiar with the matter said the alliance fears that the judges’ withdrawal could create a legal vacuum and political uncertainty.

Iraq begins initiative to enhance gasoline standards

As part of its broader efforts to upgrade the refining sector and boost the output of high-quality petroleum products, Iraq has initiated trial operations for a gasoline hydrogenation and improvement project with a daily capacity of 12,000 barrels. Adnan Hamoud, the Oil Ministry’s Undersecretary for Refining Affairs, announced the launch of the trial phase on Saturday. He noted that the project aligns with the Ministry’s strategy to enhance and expand petroleum product output. This development was highlighted during Hamoud’s visit to the Kirkuk refinery, which is considered a vital part of Iraq’s refining infrastructure. He also emphasized that the government’s long-term strategy involves modernizing the refining sector, increasing domestic production of oil derivatives, satisfying internal demand, and exporting any surplus. Although Iraq continues to face rising fuel consumption and a widening gap between supply and demand—as seen last June—Oil Minister Hayan Abdul-Ghani has outlined the country’s path to achieving gasoline self-sufficiency. Abdul-Ghani reported that Iraq’s daily gasoline consumption stands at about 28 million liters, while domestic production ranges between 21 and 22 million liters per day. However, he affirmed that Iraq is on track to become self-sufficient in gasoline by 2025.

Iran's non-oil export to Iraq can rise to $20b

Tehran Times The chairman of Iran-Iraq Joint Chamber of Commerce said that the value of Iran's annual non-oil export to Iraq can be increased to $20 billion. Iran and Iraq have a strategic relationship that can grow and develop with an economic focus, Yahya Al-e Eshaq noted. Iran and Iraq have a strategic relationship that can grow and develop with an economic focus, Yahya Al-e Eshaq noted. Last year, the value of our non-oil export to Iraq was about $12 billion, and it is predicted that this figure will increase to $20 billion in the coming years, which we believe is achievable and possible, he reiterated. According to an official with the Islamic Republic of Iran Customs Administration (IRICA), Iran exported non-oil commodities valued at $11.9 billion to Iraq in the past Iranian calendar year, which ended on March 20, 2025. Abolfazl Akbarpour, the deputy head of IRICA for planning and international affairs, said that Iraq was Iranís second top non-oil export destination in the previous year. Considering Iran's vast export capacity and Iraqs large market for Iranian goods, both sides want to expand the volume of bilateral economic exchanges. Iran and Iraq have set a target of $20 billion in annual trade, and businessmen and authorities of both countries are determined to meet that target. In late May 2024, the head of the Department of Spatial Planning and Regional Planning of the Iranian Planning and Budget Organization (PBO) said that Iran exports some 2,200 products, valued at $12 billion, to neighboring Iraq annually. Speaking in a meeting entitled ìReviewing opportunities and challenges of attracting Iraqi investors and strengthening trade relations between the two countries in line with demarcating Iran in the regional value chain, Jafar Hosseini said that Iraq, benefiting from $85 billion foreign currency reserves, 130 tons of gold reserves, and 147 billion barrels of proven reserves of crude oil, is among the richest countries in West Asia. Currently, Iran exports over 2,200 various types of goods and products to Iraq, he said, adding that more than half of the active Iranian traders are present in the Iraqi market. Developing the trade infrastructures to facilitate trade between the two countries, encouraging traders to invest in Iraq, promoting trade through dispatching and admitting trade delegations and participating in exhibitions of the two countries, etc. are suggested to strengthen the trade and economic relations between Iran and Iraq, he underlined. In an interview in mid-December last year, the ambassador of Iran in Iraq praised the economic relations between the two sides and expressed hope that these relations will be more and better. Mohammad Kazem Ale-Sadeq announced the value of commercial exchanges between the two countries, and stated that economic relations between Iran and Iraq are very good, and expressed hope that these relations will improve. The envoy further noted: Iraq is an important country in the region, and we have very important economic, political, and social relations with this neighbor. In early May 2024, Tehran hosted the 6th meeting of the Iran-Iraq Joint Economic Committee. The two-day event was co-chaired by the former Iranian Finance and Economic Affairs Minister Ehsan Khandouzi and Iraqi Minister of Commerce Atheer Daoud Al-Ghurairi. On the first day of the meeting, specialized committees including commercial, industrial, agricultural, standardization and quality control, energy, finance, banking, investment and Insurance, shipping, transport, and Customs, scientific, educational, tourism, health, as well as sports consulate held meetings to discuss areas for cooperation. Increasing non-oil exports to the neighboring countries is one of the major plans that the Iranian government has been pursuing in recent years. Iran shares land or water borders with 15 countries namely the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Afghanistan, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Bahrain, Iraq, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Oman, Pakistan, Qatar, Russia, Turkey, Turkmenistan, and Saudi Arabia.

Iraq reaches diesel milestone, eyes end to gas flaring

Shafaq News Iraq has reached self-sufficiency in gas oil (diesel) and aims to eliminate gas flaring by 2028, Oil Minister Hayan Abdul Ghani said on Sunday, while warning that the halt in Kurdistan’s oil exports is costing the country 300,000 barrels per day. Speaking in Basra during a visit to the Oil Training Institute, Abdul Ghani said gas capture rates improved from 53% at the start of Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani’s government to 67% today, and are expected to reach 70% by the end of 2025. “We will fully end flaring and utilize all associated gas by 2028,” the minister said. He added that Iraq is diversifying its gas imports beyond Iran. A 40-kilometer pipeline has been completed in Basra, and another 75-km line from Mahmudiya to Bismayah will be finished this month despite delays. Iraq is in talks to import 500 to 750 million cubic feet of liquefied gas to power electricity stations. Diesel reserves now exceed 1 million cubic meters—five times previous levels—according to Abdul Ghani. The minister noted that fuel imports, which once cost $5 billion annually, have dropped sharply, with only gasoline still being imported. “Gasoline imports will end by the close of this year,” he said. On stalled oil exports from the Kurdistan Region, Minister Abdul Ghani said Baghdad had agreed with Erbil to amend the federal budget law to facilitate exports via Turkiye’s Ceyhan port. However, unexpected conditions imposed by the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) on oil company payments stalled the deal. “We proposed appointing a consulting firm to determine per-barrel production costs, but the KRG rejected this,” he said. “The continued suspension of exports is costing Iraq 300,000 barrels per day—barrels that count against Iraq’s OPEC quota without generating any revenue.”

Iraq Exports Over 106 Million Barrels of Crude Oil in March

Iraq’s State Organization for Marketing of Oil (SOMO) announced on Tuesday that Iraq exported more than 106 million barrels of crude oil in March 2025, reflecting the country’s continued reliance on oil as its main source of revenue. According to SOMO's data, total crude exports reached 106,663,211 barrels, with the vast majority — 104,740,398 barrels — originating from oil fields in central and southern Iraq. Exports from the Gayara oil field in Nineveh totaled 1,613,840 barrels, while crude transported from Kirkuk to Jordan accounted for 309,765 barrels. The report underscores Iraq’s ongoing efforts to maintain production levels amid fluctuating global oil prices and growing regional competition, particularly as some OPEC+ members push for stricter production caps. Iraq, the second-largest oil producer in OPEC, depends on crude exports for over 90% of its national budget. While the country has repeatedly committed to OPEC+ production agreements, it often faces pressure to balance compliance with the urgent need for revenue to fund infrastructure, public services, and post-conflict reconstruction. Recent debates within OPEC+ have highlighted tensions between oil-producing nations over quotas, with Iraq frequently advocating for more flexible output policies

"Iraq amends Budget Law to pay oil firms operating in Kurdistan"

The Iraqi government has revised the national budget law to guarantee payments to international oil companies working in the Kurdistan Region, Deputy Prime Minister for Energy and Oil Minister Hayan Abdul Ghani announced on Wednesday. Speaking at the 9th Sulaimani Forum, Abdul Ghani revealed that negotiations between Baghdad and the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) led to the amendment, designed to cover operational costs for energy companies in the semi-autonomous region. “The budget law has been updated specifically to facilitate payments to companies operating in the Kurdistan Region,” Abdul Ghani explained, adding that a formal letter, signed by the Iraqi finance minister, has been issued to ensure these payments. “This move has reassured producers and alleviated their concerns.” Abdul Ghani also pointed out that oil produced in the Kurdistan Region is counted as part of Iraq’s national quota under the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC). To comply with OPEC limits, the federal government had to reduce its own production, which has negatively affected Iraq’s overall export capacity. His comments come ahead of a high-level meeting scheduled between Baghdad and Erbil on Saturday to discuss the resumption of oil exports from the Kurdistan Region. Exports through the Iraq-Turkiye pipeline were halted in March 2023 following an international arbitration ruling in Paris, which determined that Turkiye violated a 1973 agreement by allowing the KRG to independently export oil without Baghdad’s approval. The stoppage blocked approximately 450,000 barrels per day of crude, cutting off the KRG’s primary revenue stream. This disruption has strained the Kurdistan Region’s finances, triggered production cuts, and increased reliance on budget transfers from the federal government. Abdul Ghani noted that Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani’s recent visit to the Kurdistan Region and his discussions with local officials were instrumental in accelerating the negotiations and facilitating recent agreements.

Iraqi Parliament Approves Halabja as 19th Province

Iraq’s parliament on Monday voted to formally recognize Halabja as the country’s 19th province, ending years of political delays and granting full administrative status to a region long associated with one of the most harrowing atrocities of the Saddam Hussein era. The measure passed with broad backing from Kurdish, Shiite, and Sunni parties during a session of the Council of Representatives attended by 178 lawmakers. The long-delayed legislation was the first item on Monday’s six-point agenda. Second Deputy Speaker Shakhawan Abdullah said the decision carried both legal and symbolic weight. “What happened today is a legal and moral obligation,” he told reporters following the session. “Everyone knows that the fall of the tyrant began with the use of weapons of mass destruction in Halabja.” On March 16, 1988, an estimated 5,000 people, mostly civilians, were killed in a chemical weapons attack on Halabja, with thousands more injured or displaced. The attack remains one of the most notorious crimes committed by the former Baathist regime and a lasting symbol of Kurdish suffering. Efforts to grant Halabja full provincial status date back to 2013, when the Council of Ministers first endorsed the move. The Kurdistan Regional Government unilaterally declared Halabja its fourth province in 2014, and the Interior Ministry recognized the decision in 2018. However, federal ratification had remained elusive amid political disputes between Baghdad and Erbil. “This is the least that can be done for what Halabja has endured,” Abdullah said, while thanking those who supported the bill and criticizing the absence of certain lawmakers. “Their absence was regrettable.” The new province will include the district of Halabja and the towns of Khurmal, Byara, Sirwan, and Bamo. It shares an 18-kilometer border with Iran, including official crossings at Shushmi-Tawela and Pshta.

Iraqi Oil Minister: Kurdistan Region sells 286,000 barrels of oil per day without our knowledge

Iraqi oil minister says the Kurdistan Region produces 286,000 barrels of oil per day and Iran has forged Iraqi documents to avoid US sanctions. Iraqi oil minister Hayan Abdul Ghani said in an interview on Iraqi television that he told OPEC that the Kurdistan Region currently produces 286,000 barrels of oil per day and stressed that the oil production is not under the control of his ministry. He added that according to the budget law, $16 per barrel of oil production has been allocated to the Kurdistan Region, and the amount of oil exported through the port is expected to reach 350,000 barrels per day. The Iraqi oil minister said: that Iraq currently exports 3.2 million to 3.5 million barrels of oil per day, but Iran has forged Iraqi documents to avoid US sanctions.

Final kink obstructs reopening of Iraq-Turkey pipeline

By William Sellars / AGBI Iraq’s oil pipeline through Turkey – which has been closed for two years – is not just a pipeline. It raises a cornucopia of issues: declining Russian oil exports to Turkey, US pressure on Iraq to stop illicit Iraqi oil exports to Iran, peace with the militant Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) in eastern Turkey, how to split oil revenue between the Iraqi central government in Baghdad and the autonomous Kurdish region, and, finally, how to settle $1 billion dollars in arrears. Resolution may be drawing closer but the last mile, or two, may be the hardest as the oil companies and the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) struggle over financial claims. Iraq’s oil ministry said on February 22 that it could begin exports through the pipeline – running from Kirkuk in Kurdistan to the port of Yumurtalık in the Turkish seaside district of Ceyhan – “within two days”. A month later that has not happened. In part, that is because the Association of the Petroleum Industry of Kurdistan (Apikur) – which represents international operators drilling for oil under production-sharing agreements with the KRG – says there is as yet no agreement allowing for the resumption of exports via this pipeline. Apikur members are owed nearly $1 billion in arrears, the association said last year. “Discussions between the government of Iraq, KRG and IOCs [international oil companies] are ongoing,” Myles B Caggins, Apikur spokesman, tells AGBI by email. “We anticipate the US government will continue to apply pressure to Baghdad to ensure all sides reach an agreement swiftly.” The US is putting pressure on Iraq to halt clandestine shipments of crude oil to neighbouring Iran – with which the US has been at odds since the 1979 revolution – or else be subject to sanctions. Up to 200,000 barrels per day (bpd) of Iraqi crude, mainly from the Kurdish north, flow to Iran. Apikur members include the UK’s Genel Energy, London-listed Gulf Keystone Petroleum, HKN Energy, which has its headquarters in Dallas, Norway’s DNO and Canada’s ShaMaran Petroleum. Turkey halted shipments of Iraqi oil through the 970km pipeline in March 2023. Then a Paris-based arbitration tribunal ruled in favour of Baghdad in a case launched by the Iraqi government, which claimed Ankara and the KRG had been illegally exporting oil. The International Criminal Court found both the KRG and Turkey at fault. A general view of oil tanks at Turkey’s Mediterranean port of Ceyhan It fined the latter $1.5 billion and authorised the Iraq state oil marketing organisation, Somo, to control exports out of Ceyhan, a ruling that led Turkey to close the pipeline immediately. Ankara rejected any liability to pay compensation to Baghdad, a position it maintains to this day. Earnings from oil exports At its peak the Ceyhan pipeline carried 400,000 bpd of oil from autonomous Kurdistan, along with up to 75,000 bpd from other parts of Iraq fully controlled by the government in Baghdad. The combined total was equivalent to about 0.5 percent of global oil production. Baghdad successfully argued that earnings from oil exports should be paid to the central government, then redistributed to regional authorities. That problem now appears to have been solved. Early in February the government in Baghdad, under prime minister Mohammed Shia Sudani, agreed to raise the “cost recovery” to the KRG authority in Arbil. The amendment now sets what goes from the central government to the KRG to cover transport and production costs to $16 per barrel, up from an earlier proposal of $7.90 per barrel. In the meantime, Apikur says the Iraqi government – which faces an election in October – has lost out on $28 billion of earnings. Ankara too has missed out on transit fees and access to greater volumes of the Iraqi crude. “We are talking about a relationship of interdependence here,” says Büşra Zeynep Özdemir, an energy researcher at Istanbul-based research body Seta Foundation. “Iraqi oil is important for Turkey, just as the Turkish market is also very important for Iraq. Turkey is one of the largest energy-consuming countries in the region as well as acting as an intermediary for Iraqi oil to reach other countries via Yumurtalık.” Military ceasefire Progress towards resolution has also been helped by a ceasefire declaration from the PKK, which has bases in northern Iraq. The pipeline was put out of commission several times as a result of attacks, both by the PKK and the still active Isis – or Daesh – most recently in 2020. A resumption of shipments through the Kirkuk-Ceyhan pipeline has taken on increased importance for Ankara as Turkey comes under pressure to reduce its imports of Russian crude or also face sanctions. Turkey’s leading refiner Tüpraş said in January it was suspending all imports of Russian crude in response to stepped-up threats of US sanctions. Russian oil accounted for more than 60 percent of all Turkish crude imports last year, with Tüpraş estimated to have taken delivery of 225,000 bpd in 2024. With the Russian door possibly closing, the possibility of Iraqi crude imports takes on greater significance for Ankara.

Moscow is resuming oil and gas operations in Iraq’s Kurdistan Region (KRI)

Russia is to restart its key oil and gas operations in the semi-autonomous Kurdistan Region of Iraq (KRI) according to recent comments from its Energy Minister Sergei Tsivilev. From 2017 until the forced removal of President Bashar al-Assad of Syria, Moscow’s extensive energy operations in the KRI provided it with very cheap oil and gas supplies and were also an integral part of its growing geopolitical presence on the western flank of the Middle East. This encompassed the KRI, much of the rest of Iraq under the control of its Federal Government (FGI) in Baghdad, Syria, and by dint of these the ability to hold sway over all the other ‘Shia Crescent of Power’ countries, as analysed in full in my latest book on the new global oil market order. Given China’s similar policy to expand its influence in the region, with a primary initial focus on Iran and Saudi Arabia, Moscow and Beijing found their efforts especially rewarded after the U.S.’s unilateral withdrawal from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (‘JCPOA’, or colloquially ‘the nuclear deal’) with Iran in May 2018. That said, Russia’s dismal showing in its 2022 invasion of Ukraine and the subsequent removal of front man al-Assad in Syria in moves orchestrated in key respects by the U.S. and U.K. threaten Russia’s and China’s gains across the region. Consequently, this latest move by Russia to restart its operations in the KRI is a high-stakes geopolitical and energy game. Moscow is starting from a very high base level of influence in the KRI. Following the chaos that ensued after over 90% of the KRI’s population voted in favour of independence from Iraq in the September 2017 Independence Referendum, Russia thought the time was right to exploit the discord for its own ends, as also detailed in my latest book. At that point, the Kremlin’s corporate oil proxy Rosneft executed three deals that effectively took over the ownership of Kurdistan’s oil sector. First, Russia provided the KRI’s government (the KRG) with US$1.5 billion in financing through forward oil sales payable in the next three to five years. Second, it took an 80% working interest in five potentially major oil blocks in the region. And third, it established 60% ownership of the vital KRG pipeline by dint of a commitment to invest USD1.8 billion to increase its capacity to one million barrels per day. Moscow considered itself well-placed at that point to leverage this presence into a similarly powerful position in the south of the country (run by the FGI). This was to be effected by striking new oil and gas field exploration and development deals with Baghdad as part of Russia’s role in intermediating in the perennial dispute between the KRI and the FGI on the budget disbursements (from the FGI)-for-oil (from the KRI) deal first struck in November 2014. Russia not only challenged the percentage of the budget payments that was earmarked for payment to the KRI but also insisted that oil flows that had been suspended in the KRI following the September 2017 Independence Referendum would not restart fully until pipeline transit fees and pumping tariffs were paid to Rosneft. By that time, the firm had formalised its 60% stake in the Kirkuk-Ceyhan pipeline. Moscow also wanted the FGI in Baghdad to look again at its decision to deem ‘invalid’ the assignment to Rosneft by the KRG of the five exploration blocks in Kurdish territory in which it had secured an 80% stake. These were estimated to have aggregate 3P reserves of 670 million barrels. Rosneft’s involvement in the KRI not only threatened Iraq’s plans to meet its new in-house oil production targets but also its potential export routes for the new flows, given the Russian company’s involvement in the northern pipelines leading into Turkey’s Ceyhan port. The original Kirkuk to Ceyhan Pipeline – the ITP – consisted of two pipes, which had a nameplate capacity of 1.6 million bpd combined. The FGI-controlled pipeline’s export capacity reached between 250,000 and 400,000 bpd when running normally, although it was subject to regular sabotage by militants of various types. The KRG, in response to the regular attacks on the FGI pipeline, completed its own single-side track Taq field-Khurmala-Kirkuk/Ceyhan pipeline in the border town of Fishkhabur. This was part of its drive to raise oil exports above 1 million bpd. It is interesting to note that Russia’s restarting of its operations in the KRI are occurring at a time when Iraqi oil exports through the ITP remain embargoed mainly because of Baghdad seeking to stop independent oil flows from the KRI. This gives the Kremlin the same sort of potential to leverage chaos into increased influence in both the KRI and FGI regions of Iraq. It is also interesting to note that since the removal of al-Assad from Syria, Western interest in investing in the KRI has surged. The West had been a major sponsor of KRI interests before and during the expansion of Islamic State across the region in 2014, but this had declined as Russia’s influence in neighbouring Syria had expanded over the period, as also analysed in full in my latest book. In very basic terms, a senior source who works closely with the European Union’s (E.U.) energy security complex exclusively told OilPrice.com, the current broad policy of the West is to target investments in the KRI such that it persuades the KRI government to terminate all links with Chinese, Russian and Iranian companies connected to the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps over the long term. One such deal that might act as a template for renewed cooperation between the West and Baghdad is BP’s US$25 billion deal formally signed recently to develop four huge oil fields in the Kirkuk region. The U.S. and Israel also have a further strategic interest in utilising the Kurdistan Region as a base for ongoing monitoring operations against Iran. On the other side of the power balance, China and Russia’s general policy is to remove the KRI’s main source of financing -- oil exports – by stopping all independent sales and then gradually reducing all budget dispersals from the FGI down to nothing. As a senior political source in Moscow exclusively told OilPrice.com many months ago: “Iraq will be one unified country and by keeping the West out of energy deals there, the end of Western hegemony in the Middle East will become the decisive chapter in the West’s final demise.” This ultimate objective was clearly laid out on 3 August last year when Iraqi Prime Minister, Mohammed Al-Sudani said the new unified oil law -- run in every way that matters out of Baghdad -- will govern all oil and gas production and investments in both the FGI and KRI areas and will constitute “a strong factor for Iraq’s unity”. Aside from the geopolitics of it all, the KRI also has enormous oil potential. Prior to the recent rise in exploration activity in the region, more than half of the exploratory wells in Iraq had been drilled prior to 1962, a time when technical limitations and low oil prices meant a much tighter definition of a commercially successful well than would be the case today, as highlighted by the International Energy Agency in its 2017 report on the country Based on the previous limited exploration and development of oil fields in the KRI area, the proven oil reserves figure was first put at around 4 billion barrels. This was subsequently upgraded by the KRI government to 45 billion barrels, but this again may well be a significant underestimate of the oil resources there. Even using the most conservative figures, Iraq had produced only around 15-20% of its ultimately recoverable oil resources back in 2017, compared with 23% for the Middle East as a whole, according to the IEA. This figure for Iraq has not significantly changed since then. Further exploration is highly likely to add substantially to the proven reserves figure over the coming decades, particularly given the high success rate of drilled prospects in Iraq. Similarly propitious are current estimates of at least 200 trillion cubic feet (Tcf, or 5.67 trillion cubic metres) of natural gas reserves in the KRI -- around 3% of the world’s total reserves. By Simon Watkins for Oilprice.com

Iraq-Ceyhan pipeline restart timetable slips again

Officials in Iraq are targeting a March restart of crude exports via the troubled Kirkuk-Ceyhan pipeline, although complications could still cause further delays. The Kurdish Rudaw media outlet reported an Iraqi government spokesperson saying over the weekend that "steps" have been taken to get crude flowing again to the Mediterranean export terminal. "According to our information and the steps that have been taken, Kurdistan region's oil exports may restart this month," said the official, named by Rudaw as Bassem al-Awadi. The latest reports come after an 'imminent' deadline was missed last week despite intervention from US officials, with the 450,000 bpd capacity pipeline coming up to two years since oil was last exported. The spokesman added that more meetings might be needed to "reach a final outcome" but that they are in the "final stages of resolving the disputes," referencing recent talks between various parties. Delays The pipeline restart has faced multiple challenges, including Baghdad agreeing deals with Ankara and regional Kurdish authorities in Erbil, while international companies responsible for 60% of Kurdish oil output are also looking for contractual assurances. In early February, the Iraqi parliament approved amendments to the federal budget law to authorize $16/b in production and transport fees for international oil companies operating in the region, but producers expressed disappointment after last week's talks. Infrastructure, including the pipeline and pumping equipment, will also go through maintenance and safety checks after the extended period of inaction. Iraq is also under close scrutiny from OPEC for persistent overproduction so if output from the north was to increase, Baghdad would be under heavy pressure to make additional cuts in the south of the country. Quantum Commodity Intelligence

Oil & Gas Dossier

Opinion

Iraqi Army Seeks Control of Qambar Oil Field in Disputed Area

Iraq and Kurdistan Region Near Final Deal on Salaries, Oil Exports, and Internal Revenues

KRG to Supply 280,000 Barrels of Oil Daily via SOMO

General Revenues and Expenditures of Iraq in Q1 2025

Dispute between court and council heads leads to withdrawal of top federal judges.

Iraq begins initiative to enhance gasoline standards

Iran's non-oil export to Iraq can rise to $20b

Iraq reaches diesel milestone, eyes end to gas flaring

Iraq Exports Over 106 Million Barrels of Crude Oil in March

"Iraq amends Budget Law to pay oil firms operating in Kurdistan"

Iraqi Parliament Approves Halabja as 19th Province

Iraqi Oil Minister: Kurdistan Region sells 286,000 barrels of oil per day without our knowledge

Final kink obstructs reopening of Iraq-Turkey pipeline

Moscow is resuming oil and gas operations in Iraq’s Kurdistan Region (KRI)

Iraq-Ceyhan pipeline restart timetable slips again

China's Path to 2035

Why the United States should stop supporting the Iraqi Kurdish Peshmerga

Kurdistan gas and diversification

Will Iraq Finally Revive This Mothballed Megaproject?

Changes in Political Party Votes across Kurdistan Regional Governorates

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